Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 24.697078 26.123717 27.633599 29.358250 31.283316 33.377397 35.843295
2025-11-30 22.980095 24.997475 27.244971 29.963124 33.201926 36.992139 41.849238
2025-12-07 21.565672 23.861859 26.502678 29.816490 33.942914 39.028953 45.976360
2025-12-14 20.297036 22.733467 25.600940 29.299276 34.062982 40.182366 48.999668
2025-12-21 19.281309 21.807920 24.837591 28.834811 34.133307 41.190226 51.865111
2025-12-28 18.896435 21.605071 24.921497 29.411691 35.566404 44.128756 57.898775
2026-01-04 18.472102 21.314451 24.857277 29.763475 36.692968 46.729389 63.857237
2026-01-11 18.055702 21.001929 24.732563 30.004637 37.658716 49.175674 70.022526
2026-01-18 17.560166 20.557358 24.401088 29.923907 38.128489 50.884723 75.226928
2026-01-25 16.961947 19.949796 23.817194 29.442405 37.944131 51.497794 78.469289
2026-02-01 16.424223 19.398678 23.281152 28.991772 37.761145 52.075871 81.749228
2026-02-08 15.937674 18.896169 22.787527 28.570520 37.584009 52.631268 85.096750
2026-02-15 15.479642 18.424714 22.328871 28.192828 37.475206 53.344882 89.119863
2026-02-22 15.348843 18.387996 22.470089 28.712659 38.861626 56.958481 101.209005
2026-03-01 15.019627 18.067314 22.195030 28.580595 39.144174 58.518386 108.691487
2026-03-08 14.603250 17.613080 21.711621 28.100177 38.791249 58.775557 112.652998
2026-03-15 14.225921 17.201379 21.274100 27.668706 38.490175 59.099896 116.978219
2026-03-22 14.158860 17.216168 21.449188 28.204586 39.930659 63.255809 135.666187
2026-03-29 14.034283 17.144926 21.493701 28.531080 41.019583 66.850504 155.218894
2026-04-05 13.887427 17.036537 21.477399 28.754776 41.934093 70.219201 177.062033
2026-04-12 13.667812 16.817669 21.287506 28.679904 42.270047 72.264503 195.062789
2026-04-19 13.360676 16.465690 20.886415 28.233101 41.847645 72.354596 203.101867
2026-04-26 13.073971 16.136703 20.511015 27.814569 41.454436 72.475126 211.751691